What Does Unrealistic Optimism Mean?

Imagining a future in which we are happy, healthy, and prosperous may be a natural part of the human condition. Anticipation of the future can be seen as an integral part of human cognition, helping us plan and prepare for future life events. However, humans tend to downplay possible adverse outcomes in favor of positive ones – a phenomenon called unrealistic optimism. Telling the difference between unrealistic and realistic optimism may present a challenge. However, it may also benefit one's well-being. Realistic optimism is a skill that can be cultivated by learning to balance positive and negative factors that may affect an outcome. An online or in-person therapist can help you strive for more balanced thought patterns.

What is unrealistic optimism?

Unrealistic optimism typically entails predicting desirable outcomes that do not coincide with a "relative, objective standard." Known as an optimism bias, unrealistic optimism is generally thought to be one of the most pervasive biases in personality and social psychology. It normally involves holding positive illusions about future outcomes for ourselves. 

For example, a person may be unrealistically optimistic by assuming that they will fare better than their peers without an objective basis for making this assumption. In another example, one may ignore the health benefits of quitting smoking by relying on optimistic perceptions of one’s genes. This type of optimism could also take the form of failing to take necessary precautions for good health, such as eating an unhealthy diet and not exercising. 

Absolute vs. comparative unrealistic optimism

While the methodologies for determining what are generally considered to be unrealistic positive predictions have been questioned, researchers have tried to address this by making some distinctions. They may, for example, focus on measuring absolute optimism or comparative optimism. 

Unrealistic absolute optimism can be seen as an unfounded belief that a personal outcome will be more favorable than an objective standard would predict. Such beliefs may extend to the odds of earning exemplary college exam results, experiencing a divorce, getting into a car accident, or becoming ill. It might also involve an inaccurate assessment of how long it will take to complete a project or task, commonly known as a planning fallacy. 

Unrealistic comparative optimism can be defined as the belief that one's personal outcome will be more positive than that of others or that unfavorable events are less likely to occur, relative to others. For example, if someone underestimates their own risk of getting heart disease without considering an objective predictor—such as risk factors predicted in a personalized assessment test—their positive beliefs may be considered unrealistic. 

Factors that influence unrealistic optimism

Some factors can make one more prone to unrealistic optimism. These may include the following

Events within one's control

A sense of perceived control is typically based on a person's plans and intentions, such as the intent to eat a more balanced diet or exercise, and, in so doing, ward off illnesses. Conversely, feeling that a future event or outcome is outside one's control usually makes one less likely to experience optimism. 

A perceived ability to predict future outcomes

Feeling like one can predict a future outcome based on their actions and intentions often allows one to feel more optimistic. However, restrictions to prediction—such as the belief that one might soon receive information that challenges their belief—may hinder that sense of optimism.

Not having previously experienced a negative outcome

The absence of a prior negative experience typically makes one more likely to expect a positive outcome.

Other methodologies to measure unrealistic bias can include the indirect method, cross-sectional and prospective designs, and objective criteria, among others. 

The role of dispositional optimism

Dispositional optimism is often tied to one's personality traits and tendency to overestimate positive outcomes. It can be described as feeling confident about the likelihood of experiencing positive outcomes, and it tends to be a relatively stable personality trait that applies to a wide range of situations. 

However, extenuating factors, such as experiencing negative events or going through transitional life stages that present uncertainty, may affect one's optimism. Research indicates that people who tend toward dispositional optimism may experience more positive outcomes. 

The possible consequences of unrealistic optimism

Some researchers have suggested that in certain circumstances, unrealistic optimism can be beneficial. It can also be positive in the short term by reducing anxiety and motivating one toward a goal. 

While hopefulness can be helpful, unrealistic optimism has also been linked to negative consequences, such as a tendency to experience the planning fallacy. 

Unrealistic optimism can also make individuals more susceptible to misplaced hope, which could look like assuming it will be easy to make drastic behavioral changes in a short amount of time. To avoid unrealistic self-change goals, learning to tell the difference between feasible goals and those that are less so can be helpful. This may help one avoid disappointment and potential distress if they cannot accomplish their goals as expected. 

Ways to cultivate realistic optimism

Realistic optimism can play a role in increasing motivation and perseverance, a healthier lifestyle, and even longevity. It usually involves balancing positive and negative factors in a wide range of situations. 

You may see realistic optimism as the best of both worlds—holding optimistic beliefs while remaining mindful of the role of expectations. Evidence suggests that realistic optimism may be a skill that has to be cultivated as it's not necessarily something we are born with. Honing this skill can be linked to changing perceptions and increased well-being. It may involve the following:

• Considering the role of planning, effort, and dedication to complete tasks and achieve goals (the opposite of believing that success or positive outcomes will quickly come without much effort)
• Acknowledging that it may be challenging to achieve goals and persisting or adjusting goals and strategies accordingly
• Practicing mindfulness by being present and aware of what's happening around you and within you
• Practicing gratitude, which has been linked to an increase in happiness and may have a positive effect on relationships
• Adjusting your thought patterns to reflect both positive and negative factors to create a more realistic outlook
• Accepting that the future carries a level of uncertainty and unpredictability, which doesn’t negate the value of planning for the future
• Setting aside time for reflection and considering your behavior and belief patterns
• Engaging in creative pursuits that invite a sense of "flow”

Benefits of online therapy

If you're having challenges distinguishing between realistic and unrealistic optimism, you may wish to consider therapy—whether in-person or online. Online therapy, offered by platforms like BetterHelp, generally provides the opportunity to be matched with a licensed therapist who meets your needs and preferences. You can connect with an online therapist through videoconference, phone call, or online chat from the location of your choice.

Effectiveness of online therapy

A growing body of evidence suggests that online therapy is just as effective as its in-person counterpart. If you’re interested in seeking professional help with mental health-related challenges, such as those related to unrealistic optimism, both online and in-person therapy can be valid and effective choices.